Garmin Targets Strava, Fenix Revenue Slips, SmO2 Goes Mainstream

Garmin's Q1 2026 results look strong on paper: Fitness segment up 42%, EPS up 29%. But the Fenix division is quietly losing ground, and that number matters for anyone eyeing an upgrade from a Fenix 7 or 8.

A leaked internal plan suggests Garmin is rebuilding Connect into a full social platform, with Strava's 45 million active users as the direct target. This is not a cosmetic update. Garmin has the health data, the device ecosystem, and the GPS accuracy that Strava lacks natively. If they execute, Connect could become the place where your Polar Pacer, your Coros Pace 3, and your Garmin all talk to each other socially.

The hardware pressure and the platform push are connected. When your premium device line stalls, you protect margins by making the software ecosystem sticky enough that athletes stay inside your world. Apple does this. Whoop is trying to do this. Garmin now has to do it too.

Both Garmin and Whoop are moving toward muscle oxygen sensing at scale. SmO2 measures how much oxygen your muscles are actually using during effort, not just your heart rate response to that effort. It is a fundamentally more useful training signal for threshold work, VO2max intervals, and strength sessions. Moxy monitors have offered this for years at 200 to 400 dollars strapped to your quad, but no wrist device has nailed it commercially.

If either company delivers accurate SmO2 on a mainstream wearable in 2025 or 2026, training prescription changes. You stop guessing at zones and start seeing when your quads are actually running out of oxygen mid-interval. For Hyrox athletes and cyclists especially, that is a different category of feedback than anything on your wrist today.

Verdict: Garmin is under real pressure, and the response is platform plus next-gen sensing. Watch the Connect redesign closely. SmO2 is the hardware bet worth tracking.